Marine shoreline armor mapping, change analysis (2009-2019) and regulatory compliance and effectiveness assessment for San Juan…

Significant improvements have occurred in our technical understanding of the impacts shoreline armoring has on coastal processes and habitats. In response, expanded voluntary and regulatory efforts to remove armor, reduce demand for new armor, and reduce impacts of authorized armor have been implemented across the region. While some progress in removing armor and limiting new armor appears to be happening, tracking armor trends relies on a review of state permit records. Assessments of actual changes in the extent of armor along marine shorelines are limited. Friends of the San Juans recently completed a Shoreline Armor Mapping, Change Analysis, and Regulatory Compliance and Effectiveness Assessment for San Juan County, Washington. This assessment documented on-the-ground changes in San Juan County's shoreline armor between 2009 and 2019, coupled with compliance and permit research, and manager engagement. The eye-opening results provide awareness of actual conditions and can inform voluntary and regulatory armor reduction efforts, support adaptive management, and improve the effectiveness of existing programs and policies at the local and regional scale. The armor mapping documented that nearly two miles of new armor was installed (versus ¼ mile removed) from 2009 to 2019. The review of permit and enforcement records found that only 9% of new armor sites obtained required local and state permits prior to construction. The detailed review of the limited permits obtained also provided insight into how regulations are being implemented. Results highlight the need for improved compliance monitoring and demonstrate that the current use of state permit records as a proxy for on-the-ground conditions is resulting in incomplete and inaccurate data on armoring trends. The presentation will summarize methods and results of the mapping, change analysis, and regulatory assessment with an emphasis on management implications and solutions identified collaboratively with regulators.