Beyond the ban: assessing changes and impacts of U.S. crude oil exports for the West Coast

In 2015, the United States lifted a 40-year ban on the export of crude oil. The abrupt change in policy may have triggered unexpected outcomes through shifting trade routes, thereby affecting emergency preparedness. The aim of this presentation is to quantify the potential geographic and density changes from the lifting of the crude oil export ban in 2015. First investigating the regulatory and statutory background for the crude oil ban, then by using historical data, GIS, and surveys, this presentation will explore and analyze trends in shipping of crude oil along the Northwest coast from 1970 to present. With US crude oil exports increasing drastically over the last few years, it is necessary to analyze shipping regime shifts that may point to changes in vulnerability of US ports.